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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 36

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 25 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.92 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP