Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore to BUF 40 for 28 yards (45-J.Fowler; 48-B.Brinkley). Tennessee challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore to BUF 39 for 27 yards (45-J.Fowler). FUMBLES (45-J.Fowler), RECOVERED by TEN-52-S.Johnson at BUF 39. 52-S.Johnson to BUF 39 for no gain (58-R.Johnson). Penalty on BUF-27-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.16 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model