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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to TEN 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.11 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model