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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 39

Tennessee Titans 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to BUF 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.57 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP