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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to TEN 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster pushed ob at BUF 47 for 26 yards (26-A.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model