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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 65 yards to TEN 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 27 for 14 yards (58-R.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model