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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 42 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 2-D.Butler punts 31 yards to DET 12, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP