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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 35 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to DET 30, Center-82-M.Leach. 13-T.Jones pushed ob at DET 40 for 10 yards (22-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.70 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP