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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 45

Detroit Lions 7 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson at ARI 28. 21-P.Peterson to DET 32 for 40 yards (63-M.Ramirez).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model