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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 2-D.Butler punts 30 yards to DET 13, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 13-T.Jones. PENALTY on DET-57-J.Bynes, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DET 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model