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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 28 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to DET 36, Center-82-M.Leach. 13-T.Jones to DET 38 for 2 yards (10-B.Golden).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP