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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 56

Detroit Lions 7 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to ARI 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 16 for 10 yards (95-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model