Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 64

Chicago Bears 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Lanning punts 51 yards to LV 13, Center-43-T.Gafford. 38-T.Carrie to LV 17 for 4 yards (31-C.Prosinski; 35-J.Rodgers). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at LV 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model