Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 57

Chicago Bears 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(8:06) (Punt formation) 4-S.Lanning punts 39 yards to LV 18, Center-43-T.Gafford. 89-A.Cooper to LV 25 for 7 yards (53-J.Timu).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model