Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Chicago Bears 16

(13:41) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to CHI 31, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 46 for 15 yards (58-N.Ball; 57-R.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model