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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 1

Chicago Bears 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:30) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-4-S.Lanning.

The Three Options

GO +4.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.80 EP