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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 98

Denver Broncos 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to MIN 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -4.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 98, worth -6.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model