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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to MIN 46 for 2 yards (59-D.Trevathan).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model