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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 21

Denver Broncos 20 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model