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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.87 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model