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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 51

Denver Broncos 20 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to MIN 3, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP