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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 81

Denver Broncos 20 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to MIN 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 45 for 7 yards (48-S.Barrett; 16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model