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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model