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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model