Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

(5:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to SF 48, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model