Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

(11:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to GB 30, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-M.Hyde to GB 39 for 9 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.45 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model