4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.47 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model