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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to NO 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 23-M.Murphy to NO 15 for 6 yards (57-D.Wilson). A flag was thrown for block in the back, but picked up and waved off.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP