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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 13 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 29-K.Robinson pushed ob at DAL 36 for 9 yards (42-B.Church). Penalty on DAL-24-M.Claiborne, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. Pass 0, YAC 9

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.75 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model