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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 2-Z.Hocker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model