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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to NO 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL. No player touched the ball to down it. Officials blew the play dead.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model