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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.93 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model