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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model