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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 5-M.Scifres punts 40 yards to CLE 32, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-43-B.Oliver.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP