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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 5 at the 49
Cleveland Browns 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10
What Actually Happened
(6:03) 8-A.Lee punts 30 yards to LAC 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.55 EP
Model's Pick
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.65 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
KICK
-1.64 EP
- 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
- 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
What Happened
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
