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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 2-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.49 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model