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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-K.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP