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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 49

New York Giants 2 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to WAS 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder. PENALTY on WAS-59-T.Plummer, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 12.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.24 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model