4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 65

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(5:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-C.Thompson to WAS 45 for 10 yards (47-U.Unga).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP