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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 40

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(12:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-R.Grant to NYG 34 for 6 yards (38-T.McBride). Penalty on NYG-28-J.Hosley, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model