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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 6 at the 30
New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 6
What Actually Happened
(7:34) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
The Three Options
GO
+0.89 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.58 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
KICK
+1.28 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
- 25% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
+0.13 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
