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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 38

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. to WAS 34 for 4 yards (26-B.Breeland).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model