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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 46

New York Giants 15 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(:19) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to WAS 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP