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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 7 at the 18
New York Giants 12 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(7:36) 3-J.Brown 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
The Three Options
GO
+1.20 EP
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.11 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.64 EP
KICK
+1.81 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT
-0.19 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
