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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 44

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey to TB 15 for 5 yards (45-J.Prosch; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP