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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 25

Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.39 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP