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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to TB 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 8. 43-B.Rainey to TB 12 for 4 yards (29-A.Hal).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model