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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 2-K.Brindza 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.30 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP