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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 11 at the 50
New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3
What Actually Happened
(:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.68 EP
-
31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.54 EP
- 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK
-1.34 EP
- 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT
-0.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
