Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 91

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Jets 0

(3:39) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to NYJ 37, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -3.82 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 91, worth -5.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model